Race Prediction

Miami Grand Prix

Miami International Autodrome · 03 May 2026

50% recent form · 25% championship · 15% circuit history · 10% qualifying pace — based on rounds 1–3 (last 3 races)
Podium Prediction

Predicted finishing order for the top 3

P2
25%
probability
George Russell
Mercedes
Score85.5

RUS is a strong contender at Miami International Autodrome.

P1
27%
probability
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
Score86.4

LEC is a strong contender at Miami International Autodrome.

P3
24%
probability
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
Score85.0

ANT is a strong contender at Miami International Autodrome.

Likely Finishers

Drivers likely to finish in the points — no specific order

DriverScoreProb
Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team
45.0
1%
Oscar PiastriMcLaren
53.7
2%
Lewis HamiltonFerrari
71.5
8%
Liam LawsonRB F1 Team
48.7
1%
Lando NorrisMcLaren
66.4
5%
Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team
57.6
2%
Max VerstappenRed Bull
62.7
4%
How It Works

Model Methodology

55%
Recent Form

Recency-weighted finishing positions across the last 5 races. Most recent race counts most.

20%
Championship Standing

Points standing after the last completed round — reflects consistent season pace.

10%
Circuit History

Podium finishes at this circuit over the last 10 seasons. Capped to avoid retired-era bias.

15%
Qualifying Pace

Recency-weighted qualifying positions — pole converts to a win ~40% of the time in modern F1.

Predictions are generated from historical and current-season data via the Jolpica F1 API. All scores are min-max normalised per factor and then weighted. Podium probabilities are derived from a softmax over the top-10 scores. This is a statistical model — actual race outcomes depend on many unpredictable factors.